Needless to say, this is my favorite time of the year. Those who know me know how much I love to speculate and discuss (especially about movies), and how much I love the Oscars. So naturally, I will provide the nominations and give my predictions of who I whink WILL win and then tell you who I think SHOULD win. But first, I have an issue with this years Oscars...
What is m issue you ask? Well, my issue lies in the 10 nominations given to the Best Picture category this year. This is an obvious attempt for the Academy to improve their ratings. You see, the Academy is of the position that with more nominations allowed, a wider range of movies will get nominated. This will give a wider range of people more personal stock in the awards. At least that's what it's supposed to do. This is a reaction to the uproar from The Dark Knight being shut out of the Best Picture category last year. Too little too late Academy. Adding nominations to best picture does nothing to add to the awards in this blogger's opinion. It only goes to cheapen the prestige of getting nominated for best picture. I have no sympathy for the Academy and their declining ratings, they have effed up too many times in the past (see: 1997, 1998, 2004) and 5 more Best Picture nominees won't make up for it. But that is neither here nor there, on with my predictions...
Best Picture:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious: Based on the novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Who will win: Avatar
Who Should Win: Inglorious Basterds
Analysis: The Academy often falls victim to it's own hype and can't seem to ignore movies that make a boatload of money. Sometimes in this category a movie like Avatar will get nominated based on how revolutionary it is and get upset by a smaller movie (see: 1977 Annie Hall beating Star Wars). The Hurt Locker is also a strong contender here. However, I have seen all three and in my estimation Inglorious Basterds is the best film of the year and should come away with the prize, although it probably won't.
Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
Who Will Win: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Who Should Win: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Analysis: The Academy often likes it when stars who have been around for a while take a humbling role like this. The Academy also seems to be a sucker for a story about a drunk looking for redemption. While the other nominees may be strong candidates I don't see one strong enough to take this from Bridges. Clooney won a few years ago and seemed to play the same super smooth, suave character he always plays. Colin Firth and Jeremy Renner are too new to the game at this point, Morgan Freeman also won a couple years ago and I think his nomination was based on hype and reputation. Renner is the biggest competition but I think Bridges will take it home.
Best Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christopher Pummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
Who will win: Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
Who should win: Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
Analysis: The rest of the nominees don't matter. Waltz has had this locked up since August with one of the best performances I have seen in a long time. If he loses it will a travesty the likes of what would have happened had Heath Ledger not won last year.
Best Actress:
Sanda Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious: Based on the novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Meryl Streep - Julia & Julia
Who will win: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Who should win: Gabourey Sidibe - Precious: Based on the novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Analysis: I will have to be honest and say that this may be the only category in which I haven't seen any of the movies up for the award. Bullock is getting all the pub and this may be her Julia Roberts moment where after years of chick flicks she breaks through and wins the award just because people finally realize she can actually act beyond a rom-com (even if she is less deserving than some other candidates). From everything I have heard Sidibe should be the one to pull it down with her star making turn in Precious.
Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious: Based on the novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Who will win: Mo'Nique - Precious: Based on the novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Who should win: Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart
Analysis: The Academy loves when someone comes out of nowhere unexpectedly and gives a great performance, which is what I hear Mo'Nique did. I feel this is one where the hype will win her the award and time will show a different woman should have won. Maggie Gyllenhaal was the true center of Crazy Heart and may have given the best performance in the movie. She has showed herself to be a true actress with talent and range and if she doesn't win this year, then she will be back in the future.
Best Director:
James Cameraon - Avatar
Katheryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Quinten Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds
Lee Daniels - Precious: Based on the novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Who will win: Katheryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Who should win: Quinten Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds
Analysis: I think this is finally the year that a female will win the award and Bigelow is as deserving as any candidate this year. However, I will say this is the hardest race to handicap. Bigelow, Cameron, and Tarantino all have legitimate shots I feel. I also feel the academy has a love affair with Cameron (as does the entire world it seems this year). Ultimately, I think Bigelow being a woman, and her superb work building the tension on The Hurt Locker will win her the day, and deservedly so. When it comes down to it, any of the three mentioned wouldn't bother me if they won.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious: Based on the novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Up in the Air
Who will win: Precious: Based on the novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Who should win: Precious: Based on the novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Best Original Screenplay:
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up
Who will win: Inglorious Basterds
Who should win: Inglorious Basterds
So what do you all think? Am I right? Am I wrong? Am I completely off base? Don't know what I'm talking about? Nailed them right on the head? Let me know in the comments section below and let me know who you all think will win. See you March 7th.
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