Sunday, February 13, 2011

2011 Academy Award Predictions

Who Will Win, Who Should Win, Who Has a Shot


The time has come. The Oscar nominations have been released and they have had some time to set in. As I did last year I will give you all my predictions for who will actually win the award, who should win the award (according to the humble opinion of yours truly) and this year I will even give you a 'dark horse' the nominee who could sneak up and capture the trophy.

First of all, I will say that despite recent events (mainly the swing in momentum from 'The Social Network' to 'The King's Speech'), the Academy has done a better job than recent years in making sure the correct movies and actors were represented. So without further ado, here are my predictions for the 8 major categories.

Best Picture:
The Social Network
The King's Speech
True Grit
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
127 Hours
The Fighter
The Kid's Are All Right

Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win The Social Network
Dark horse: True Grit
If you had asked me a month ago the winner would have been easy, 'The Social Network.' Unfortunately, momentum has shifted in the last month starting with 'The King's Speech' getting the most Oscar nominations (12) and winning the Producer's Guild award and the SAG ensemble, award. The hands down best picture of the year was 'The Social Network' and it began it's unprecedented run through the year end Critics awards. TSN looked unstoppable on it's run to best picture, until recently. 'True Grit' is the one to watch here, if TKS and TSN split, then True Grit could come out of nowhere and steal the award.

Best Director:
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
David O. Russell - The Fighter
Joel and Ethan Coen - True Grit
Who will win: David Fincher - The Social Network
Who should win: David Fincher - The Social Network
Dark Horse: Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
David Fincher gave the most impressive directorial effort of the year and should deservingly take home the trophy with his tour de force turn. In recent years it seem the Academy has taken the Best Director award and almost looked at it like a second best picture award. Instead of recognizing that the best picture usually means the best director, the Academy has used it as a way to recognize two separate movies, assuming it's a close race like this year is. I imagine we will see many splits in the near future. The one to watch here is Darren Aronofsky, as from a pure directorial effort, you could make the argument his was the most impressive. Especially if voters split between Fincher and Hooper for TKS then watch out for Aronofsky.

Best Actor:
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
James Franco - 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Who will win: Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Who Should win: Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Dark Horse: Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Colin Firth is about as sure of a thing as you can get. TKS an 'Academy Award-type' movie, Firth is an older actor who has put in his time, and he really did give a good performance (he gets extra bonus points for the 'triumphant' nature of the role). Eisenberg was the most impressive, playing against type and putting on a class of subtle acting genius. Bridges just won a year ago but did such a good job redefining the role of Rooster Cogburn that many people just might lean his way.

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Annette Bening - The Kid's Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
Who will win: Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Who should win: Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Dark Horse: Annette Bening - The Kid's Are All Right
This goes in the same category of Cristoph Waltz for 'Inglorious Basterds' last year in that there is no denying the statue should go to Portman. Her transcendent performance in Black Swan is one for the ages and it would be a travesty if she didn't win. I am a little worried due to the fact that Bening has gained some slight momentum as of late, but I think when it's all said and done it will be too hard to go against Portman with her performance.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Mark Ruffalo - The Kid's Are All Right
Who will win: Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Who should win: John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
Dark Horse: Christian Bale - The Fighter
This is a tight race between Bale and Rush, but when in doubt go to the safe choice, which is the triumphant role of Lionel Logue played by Rush, as opposed to the crack addicted sad sack of Dicky Eklund played by Bale. Hawkes gave the best performance but it was too "small" to garner enough attention to win. I think Bale has a good shot, but ultimately, the safe choice wins out.

Best Supporting Actress:
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jackie Weaver - Animal Kingdom
Who will win: Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Who should win: Amy Adams - The Fighter
Dark Horse: Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Leo seems to have all of the momentum these days, although it's waning a bit now. Adams, I think, gave the stronger more subtle performance that really helped pull the movie together, but Leo's was a bit flashier. HBC could pull the safe vote and find her way on stage for the award and it wouldn't really surprise me. This is usually the hardest award to predict and this year is no different.

Best Original Screenplay:
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kid's Are All Right
The King's Speech
Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win: Inception
Dark Horse: The Kid's Are All Right
Again, TKS reaps the benefit of being the 'safe choice,;' however, Inception was a much more brilliant display of writing. It was a truly original story and the layering of the story was as impressive as we will ever see. The Academy will always have a soft spot for the likes of the 'smartly written' movies like TKAAR, but I don't know if it has enough momentum to take the award.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Social Network
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
True Grit
Who will win: The Social Network
Who should win: The Social Network
Dark horse: Winter's Bone
This is a slam dunk. When it's all over with this might be the only award the movie wins but there was no better display of writing during the year. Aaron Sorkin can be a little much but he was reigned in on this one and found a way to be great. Sometimes movies like Winter's Bone can sneak up and take the victory, but The Social Network has this locked up for 2011.

Final Thoughts: There it is. My predictions for the 8 major awards for this years Oscars. I was 6/8 in my predictions last year, so hopefully I can keep the solid picks going. I will probably be completely wrong, but you never know, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. I only hope that I don't turn off my TV on February 27th and find myself disappointed. Although, if I'm totally happy then my picks will be quite a bit off, but you know, I'm OK with that.

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